Last week a national survey on Venezuela was presented at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington.

The public opinion study was done in the second half of April, by GBAO and Albright Stonebridge Group (ASG) with a counterpart in Venezuela who did the fieldwork and participated in the development of the methodology. This survey was not commissioned by a private company or a political party. The main objective was to understand what was going in Venezuela and the interactions of the international actors in it.

One of the main conclusions indicates that Venezuela is a polarized society, but not divided, supporters of the PSUV are 28%, anti-regime organizations (AR) 41%, and those who have no political party (NP) 31%. It is observed that Maduro has more significant support in people 50 years old or older, with low academic instruction and living in rural areas, a coalition similar to the one President Trump has in the United States today.

The volatile political climate in Venezuela with extreme economic conditions poses multiple challenges for national and international actors who seek to influence the course of events in the Caribbean country.

Another conclusion is that Venezuelans overwhelmingly reject the Maduro regime. His government is firmly rejected by 3 out of 4 Venezuelans (99% of the AR and 95% of the NP). Maduro’s government approval is 1 out of 4, basically from PSUV followers, despite the severe socio-economic crisis that the country is going through.

Likewise, it is observed that Maduro is losing the support of the lowest social groups, classified as D and E. He has the backing of 31% of the people without secondary education -a 40% drop with respect to Hugo Chávez-, 29% with Bachelor degree, 16% with some technical and university studies, and 17% with third and fourth level of education.

The rejection of the leadership of PSUV’s political class is not only towards Nicolás Maduro, but also Diosdado Cabello and Vladimir Padrino López who obtain the same result. An opinion shared by the soldiers/family in military, and non-military families, obtaining 68% rejection.

Regarding the economic crisis, the blackouts and the lack of humanitarian aid, Maduro and his regime are responsible, getting 64%, 68%, and 73% respectively.

The National Constituent Assembly, the Supreme Court of Justice and the National Electoral Council are disapproved in their performance with two-thirds of the population, while the National Assembly has 59% support.

It was found that the Venezuelan exodus would continue happening in the coming months. The most likely to leave the country are the AR (40%) and NP (47%), which would affect the correlation between political forces because those of the PSUV want to stay in Venezuela. Consequently, the future political scenario would be dominated by the PSUV with 40% of followers.

The poll indicates that Juan Guaidó has strong support, 54%, between opposition candidates. It exceeds Leopoldo Lopez, by 15%, Maria Corina Machado by 24% and Henrique Capriles by 25%. He is the only politician with a favorable rating.

Also, Guaidó has the trust of Venezuelans to lead its political transition and to lead the future government, after a presidential election (60%). In an electoral contest against Maduro, Guaidó would easily defeat him with 61% of the votes, although Chávez successor would lose a presidential election under any scenario if he faces a single opposition candidate.

The public opinion study also found that a clear majority (58%) wants the Venezuelan Armed Forces to support Guaidó, including the soldiers and its military family, and the non-military families. Besides, the AR and NP support the amnesty for the regime and the army, 64%, and 70% respectively.

Regarding the solution for the political crisis in Venezuela, the options that had majority support were:

• Nicolás Maduro resigns, and new elections are held under the provisional presidency of Juan Guaidó (65%),
• Foreign countries sanction more Venezuelan officials freezing their assets and prohibiting their ability to travel to certain countries (62%), and
• The Venezuelan Army removes Nicolás Maduro from the presidency (60%).

As well an option was given in which it was not observed the polarization: International mediators call for negotiation between the government and the opposition.

Instead, there is a division over a foreign military intervention: for AR and NP followers support exceeds 50%. The same thing happens with the United States sanctions against PDVSA: the AR 73% and NP 53% supports the action. When evaluating this measure in the social classes, D and E feel the impact. So, the inhabitants of rural areas are the most affected.

The countries that support Maduro in the usurpation of the presidency are evaluated negatively. In last place, Cuba is located with 63% negative. While Colombia, the United States, Brazil, the European Union, Canada, and Mexico obtain a favorable rating above 50%, and China gets 48%.

All Venezuelans agree that foreign investment would be necessary to recover the Venezuelan economy.

Finally, the study evaluates Chávez legacy and determines a deterioration in it. Most want to maintain some policies of the deceased president, especially the missions.

Before April 30, the poll shows that Venezuelans want a change of government. Also, they would like it to happen peacefully and democratically. Also, Venezuelans consider that Juan Guaidó should lead the change with the accompaniment of the military family and civil society, and the democratic international community.

Of course, another survey has to be done after April 30 events. However, this poll will have many of the elements of the previous one. Therefore, the democratic forces must assume any challenge that will present the new study to restore the democracy in Venezuela, understanding “the fallacy of misplaced concreteness”.

English